bmer

Which transmission types do you believe will be the leading ones in the market in the near future? Do you think that re-enhanced regular automatic and manual transmissions will remain as the most common choices? Or are we going to see a revolution in the transmission field as new alternatives such as Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT/DSG) and Continously Variable Transmission (CVT/ Multitronic) replace manual and automatic transmissions?


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DCT:

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Imhotep Evil

CVT, no way...
Twin clutch yes.
Maybe seamingless sequentials like in Formula 1.

EnI

DCT transmissions, (multi)turbo charged engines, lean burn DI engines, clean diesels, hybrids, brake energy regenerators, automatic stop & start engine function, valve shut downs, etc

These are the latest trends in automotive industry to enhance fuel saving & performance.

Mr. M

CVT for fuel-economy, run-about cars and people who use cars for utility.

Regular automatic will be replaced almost entirely by DSG, IMO.

Manual will remain as an option as I think nothing can replace a manual human shift experience.

donau

Great topic bmer!

For the hard-core enthusiast who does not want to be driven but who wants to drive him/herself it will always be the manual. Admittedly this group is not the masses.
One of the articles stated that most drivers in Europe prefer manuals because it makes them feel in control. This is obviously not the group I am referring to as the hard-core enthusiats. I believe DCT and Automatics will gradually gain market share amongst the average European driver who currently feel they prefer manuals.

I think for those who like gadgetry, like to play with things particularly if they offer performance advantages, the DCT type transmissions will become the transmission of choice. I guess this group would also be an enthusiast group, although not the hard core: "no power steering", "no ABS brakes", no "ESP", Only manuals" etc. type of enthusiast.

For the masses, I believe it will be the good old automatic, whether it be a ZF 6 speed or the 7G-tronic or something else. The automatic in todays world just is the easiest solution to cope with increasing stop and go traffic, pressure, aggression, road`rage etc that we encounter on our roads every day when going about our lives. It's the option that does a lot for you - which is a good thing when your mind is involved with everything but the driving experience, other than how smooth, comfortable and effortless the ride was.

The CVT will probably be best in utility vehicles of any kind, be it a post office mail delivery car, buses, ambulances etc. Maybe taxis too.

Top Secret

Might I add, that the CVT is not a "new" alternative - the first application of a CVT was in 1959 by little-known manufacturer, Daf.

The CVT has been around for just under 1959, yet has limited application in road cars. It's fair to say that if CVT's haven't been popular in the past 50 years, then I don't think it has a future in motoring applications in the next few years.

I still think that automatic and manual transmissions will be the foundation for the majority of cars in years to come due to one major factor: cost. The cost in developing alternate transmissions makes it unavailable to only the most prestige car makers. Some car makers have to struggle with four-speed automatics and five-speed manuals, let alone develop a completely new, state-of-the-art transmission.

I'm not saying that DSG-type gearboxes will just shrivel away into the dustbin of history, but merely saying that it won't be a widespread transmission in the next few years. It'll be used heavily by prestige car makers for performance applications, but it definately won't replace automatics completely.

donau

Good call! I remember the DAFs but never knew they had CVT type of transmissions....

Imhotep Evil

Well the dual clutch has been invented ~70 years ago. And in 1947 Citroen put some dual clutches in some special 11CV cars, for Saloon du Paris.

However it was Porsche who used it into their 959 and 962 racecars, and licensed to Audi for their Quattro S1 rally car.

And only recently dual clutches apeared in production cars.

So who knows about the future ?!

The problem DC haven't adressed is downshifting, were they have no efficiency over manuals, and you can still make wrong shifts.

SMG III however, while resolving some of this problems, is still an overkill for everyday use, tough ruthlessly eficient on a racetrack.

Snake Vargas

Dual clutch transmissions are pretty good. They're enough automatic for general use without being too mushy. I think they'll become the mainstream enthusiast's choice, in time.

On the other hand, the CVT is probably the definition of an efficient transmission - just too bad about the feel, though it could possibly be minimised with smart programming of the control unit.

IMO these two types could easily take a share of the conventional automatic's, though these have been so well developed for so long that change would take decades.

Similarly, manuals will have a part to play for perhaps even longer.

bmer

Good posts, guys!